Great audio and interesting topic. I’ll admit that I never envisioned drone warfare morphing into what it has become. I spent most my career (2003-2018) in a JTAC or FSC type roll. I was certified on the Raven-B’s when they first came to SOCOM. As a JTAC, I hated them because everyone tried to lump it in with JTACery and add it to our tasks of things to do on target. As I was leaving special ops we were utilizing quad drones for spotting and forward observing and there was talk about putting small munitions on them etc but honestly I still dismissed it, being in JSOC we had MQ-9’s,MQ-1’s at our disposal… IED’s in the Helmand were bad enough.. couldn’t imagine dealing with both risks.
I'm no expert but I'm curious if you think drone swarm technology would count as a Fifth Generation of Warfare method.
I've heard 5GW defined differently by different people.
Some paper from Westpoint said 5GW is cyber and information warfare, but I see that definition as problematic because there is no direct killing of a person involved, and they may not succeed at eliminating the necessity of killing, if that is the goal there.
Robert Malone wrote recently that we have gone into a seventh (or eighth?) generation of warfare, with his definition of biowarfare and other forms.
So there are a lot of takes to sort through.
I believe 5GW must be both cyber and physical and I think the pager bombs and drone swarms operating in a jamming environment fit the description.
When Azerbaijan destroyed the Armenian military using Turkish and Israeli drones (dropping 72kg and 28kg payloads respectively if my memory is correct) I saw that as a turning point in warfare. Yes the Ukraine situation has yielded further developments, and Lithiania may have a new drone that doesn't need a wire to operate in a jamming environment!
I think drones are 3/4 GW because they are a permutation of artillery fires for deployment and 4GW because the defense against them is a little different. But whatever defense measures are taken against artillery are similar BUT loitering and maneuvering munitions that "hunt" are a new variant.
Folks claim IEDs are new but it is another variant of mine warfare and ambush tactics.
Changes in TTP can be just as important as technology solutions to the problem.
I am just as eager as the next to expand the generations of warfare but only if that framing improves the efficacy of deployment and defensive measures.
Great audio and interesting topic. I’ll admit that I never envisioned drone warfare morphing into what it has become. I spent most my career (2003-2018) in a JTAC or FSC type roll. I was certified on the Raven-B’s when they first came to SOCOM. As a JTAC, I hated them because everyone tried to lump it in with JTACery and add it to our tasks of things to do on target. As I was leaving special ops we were utilizing quad drones for spotting and forward observing and there was talk about putting small munitions on them etc but honestly I still dismissed it, being in JSOC we had MQ-9’s,MQ-1’s at our disposal… IED’s in the Helmand were bad enough.. couldn’t imagine dealing with both risks.
Just happen to notice that the Institute didn't cross post this episode into their podcast feed as they normally do
I'm no expert but I'm curious if you think drone swarm technology would count as a Fifth Generation of Warfare method.
I've heard 5GW defined differently by different people.
Some paper from Westpoint said 5GW is cyber and information warfare, but I see that definition as problematic because there is no direct killing of a person involved, and they may not succeed at eliminating the necessity of killing, if that is the goal there.
Robert Malone wrote recently that we have gone into a seventh (or eighth?) generation of warfare, with his definition of biowarfare and other forms.
So there are a lot of takes to sort through.
I believe 5GW must be both cyber and physical and I think the pager bombs and drone swarms operating in a jamming environment fit the description.
When Azerbaijan destroyed the Armenian military using Turkish and Israeli drones (dropping 72kg and 28kg payloads respectively if my memory is correct) I saw that as a turning point in warfare. Yes the Ukraine situation has yielded further developments, and Lithiania may have a new drone that doesn't need a wire to operate in a jamming environment!
*You hear digging*...
https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/03/18/lithuania-sends-ukraine-cutting-edge-ai-drones-that-dont-just-avoid-russian-jamming-they-overcome-it/
Your analysis seems spot on here, as always!
Joshua,
Thanks for the interesting post and questions.
My view is a little more simple.
I think drones are 3/4 GW because they are a permutation of artillery fires for deployment and 4GW because the defense against them is a little different. But whatever defense measures are taken against artillery are similar BUT loitering and maneuvering munitions that "hunt" are a new variant.
Folks claim IEDs are new but it is another variant of mine warfare and ambush tactics.
Changes in TTP can be just as important as technology solutions to the problem.
I am just as eager as the next to expand the generations of warfare but only if that framing improves the efficacy of deployment and defensive measures.
I talk about Norgorno-Karabakh in Episode 047.
Perfect audio