I’m not sure tactics, equipment, and/or generals will catch up to the drone swarm tactics in time for the first 20 million men who are meat grinded. Ask the men who charged machine guns in WWI. Trusting the DOD to procure a fix before your children are sacrificed is foolish.
By the time I entered the Marine Corps in 1984, "the age of infantry is coming to an end" had been a thing for more than half a century (starting with the advent of tanks in World War I).
My guess is that infantry will outlive every other military occupation. When the world ends, the last soldier to have killed, and died, will each have been an infantryman.
small scale portable EMP weapons deployed to disable drone swarms ==> drone hardening significantly raises costs. Individual targeting rendered ineffective. You do not mention or discuss anti-drone methodologies as if to dismiss them entirely.
Fair enough but CUAS is an arms race where both sides in that salvo competition get a vote and ALL non-kinetic EMP/microwave/laser modalities are fratricidal by design. Also, I try to keep my episodes to approx an hour.
One of the problems is that there is a corollary to Moore's Law working here in robotics and in ten years we will all be shocked at the advancements in robotics. Think of UAS as a permutation of 21st century artillery warfare (marginally added to traditional munitions that loiter).
I look forward to being shown that my dismissal of the infantry is premature and I'll take a step back.
Air defense systems have lagged behind on addressing UAVs. That is rapidly changing.
The general rule in engineering is that things that fly are easy to break. You note in your podcast how effective air defense systems have become in addressing conventional and stealth aircraft.
The fratricidal nature of anti-electronic systems will be addressed fairly easily. Moore's Law (outdated and which doesn't really apply here but I get your analogy so I'll use it) cuts both ways. A drone was following Trump's motorcade and was shot down with a handheld anti-drone EM weapon.
To forecast that for the next 75 years, much less the next 10, will be an infantry-less drone-fest is probably not a good call.
My forecast is that within five years we will see a lot more laser based communications, much better thermal camo, and robust man-portable anti-drone defenses. There will also be development of rocket artillery EMP. The old cruise missile CHAMP will be improved and move forward rapidly into widespread deployment.
I think snipers will become more common on the battlefield because they can strike from relatively long distance using low signature weapons with precision. We have seen this in Ukraine and it is a trend that I can see expanding.
All great points and I think the era of micro- & nano-drones is yet to go to the scale that will be the signature that will change the face of infantry warfare again.
Snipers, like all riflemen and missile-man will have an emission control problem for ubiquitous "sniffing" that conduct very aggressive counter-battery fires.
I don't have all the answers but I don't see many worthies at the Pentagon pursuing these lines of inquiry and running to ground in an Analysis of Alternatives (AoA).
If the infantry is folding its colors I shudder to think about what being a combat engineer on a modern battlefield in a peer on peer conflict would be like. I still have my trusty entrenching tool in my kit though.
I hope it doesn’t come to it but if it does I don’t plan on going outside my state let alone CONUS. I’ll look at the cold steel. Got a couple of folding ones that were part of scrounging deals I helped move stuff on. Don’t tell DOGE I guess.
The way I see it, those skills may be much more useful in CONUS if there is a civil war or invasion (the latter which I believe is very low on the probability radar). And as a life-long student of small arms, they are a skill set I cherish.
John. Good input. A “defensive war” here in the homeland may yet be a reality. It’s always been “over there”. Today’s migrant invasion landscape may change fast. The information terrain and the human terrain is changing so fast here. I do know that Homza BinLadin is alive, in charge of terror operations and is married to 5 women of different clans and has children from each. That make this a family issue as well as an ideological one. We killed his father in his father’s home, not at a training camp or in combat. Islam wants to hurt Americans in their homes. That’s us.
This could get ugly. Did anyone say sleeper cells?
I agree with @berglander. We haven't fought a defensive war in my lifetime, and yet we have fought, and died, ceaselessly. I encouraged my son to complete Navy ROTC twenty years ago; it was a mistake then, and I will not repeat the mistake.
I am conflicted because to a man for those who never joined, they regret it for the rest of their lives.
BUT
The services are existentially bad right now. I tried to get all my lads not to join but my youngest spent four years in Uncle Sam's Misguided Children and got out. He actually benefited from the Boot to Ass and listened to his old man NOT to join the infantry and thanked me afterward.
If DOGE digs into the Pentagon, the revelations will be stunning and heartbreaking.
I’m not sure tactics, equipment, and/or generals will catch up to the drone swarm tactics in time for the first 20 million men who are meat grinded. Ask the men who charged machine guns in WWI. Trusting the DOD to procure a fix before your children are sacrificed is foolish.
Bill, agree with your direction... mostly though. Infantry may still likely be used for "mop up" ops.
One thing you forgot. For every invention, tactic, etc.... there is a counter.
By the time I entered the Marine Corps in 1984, "the age of infantry is coming to an end" had been a thing for more than half a century (starting with the advent of tanks in World War I).
My guess is that infantry will outlive every other military occupation. When the world ends, the last soldier to have killed, and died, will each have been an infantryman.
small scale portable EMP weapons deployed to disable drone swarms ==> drone hardening significantly raises costs. Individual targeting rendered ineffective. You do not mention or discuss anti-drone methodologies as if to dismiss them entirely.
Fair enough but CUAS is an arms race where both sides in that salvo competition get a vote and ALL non-kinetic EMP/microwave/laser modalities are fratricidal by design. Also, I try to keep my episodes to approx an hour.
One of the problems is that there is a corollary to Moore's Law working here in robotics and in ten years we will all be shocked at the advancements in robotics. Think of UAS as a permutation of 21st century artillery warfare (marginally added to traditional munitions that loiter).
I look forward to being shown that my dismissal of the infantry is premature and I'll take a step back.
Dismissal of Warfare would signal the Advancement of Mankind to a Higher Level of Awareness.
Fact.
That It is Dismissed only Confirms the Current Level of Awareness.
When Mankind cannot Define the Difference between a Brain and a Mind; It only Exposes the Current Neanderthal Level of Thought.
Can a Higher Consciousness above Homo Sap even be Conceived?
The Battle for Our Survival lies therein.
Air defense systems have lagged behind on addressing UAVs. That is rapidly changing.
The general rule in engineering is that things that fly are easy to break. You note in your podcast how effective air defense systems have become in addressing conventional and stealth aircraft.
The fratricidal nature of anti-electronic systems will be addressed fairly easily. Moore's Law (outdated and which doesn't really apply here but I get your analogy so I'll use it) cuts both ways. A drone was following Trump's motorcade and was shot down with a handheld anti-drone EM weapon.
To forecast that for the next 75 years, much less the next 10, will be an infantry-less drone-fest is probably not a good call.
My forecast is that within five years we will see a lot more laser based communications, much better thermal camo, and robust man-portable anti-drone defenses. There will also be development of rocket artillery EMP. The old cruise missile CHAMP will be improved and move forward rapidly into widespread deployment.
I think snipers will become more common on the battlefield because they can strike from relatively long distance using low signature weapons with precision. We have seen this in Ukraine and it is a trend that I can see expanding.
Andrew,
All great points and I think the era of micro- & nano-drones is yet to go to the scale that will be the signature that will change the face of infantry warfare again.
Snipers, like all riflemen and missile-man will have an emission control problem for ubiquitous "sniffing" that conduct very aggressive counter-battery fires.
I don't have all the answers but I don't see many worthies at the Pentagon pursuing these lines of inquiry and running to ground in an Analysis of Alternatives (AoA).
Thanks for the great observations.
Drone-enabled counter-sniper fires. Interesting.
If the infantry is folding its colors I shudder to think about what being a combat engineer on a modern battlefield in a peer on peer conflict would be like. I still have my trusty entrenching tool in my kit though.
I hope it doesn’t come to it but if it does I don’t plan on going outside my state let alone CONUS. I’ll look at the cold steel. Got a couple of folding ones that were part of scrounging deals I helped move stuff on. Don’t tell DOGE I guess.
You know, I think there is utility for infantry skills in CONUS. Outside of CONUS, no. The combat engineers better work remotely.
Per entrenching tools, I am a fan of the non-folding Cold Steel shovel.
I’d like to hear more about infantry skills in CONUS if you would?
The way I see it, those skills may be much more useful in CONUS if there is a civil war or invasion (the latter which I believe is very low on the probability radar). And as a life-long student of small arms, they are a skill set I cherish.
Agreed - we may have need of those skills in such an emergency and certainly in our ongoing (never ending?) fight for our freedom.
I was NAVY. This infantry lingo is a whole new calculus for me. Interesting. Do I recommend NAVY or Army to my Grandson???
John. Good input. A “defensive war” here in the homeland may yet be a reality. It’s always been “over there”. Today’s migrant invasion landscape may change fast. The information terrain and the human terrain is changing so fast here. I do know that Homza BinLadin is alive, in charge of terror operations and is married to 5 women of different clans and has children from each. That make this a family issue as well as an ideological one. We killed his father in his father’s home, not at a training camp or in combat. Islam wants to hurt Americans in their homes. That’s us.
This could get ugly. Did anyone say sleeper cells?
I agree with @berglander. We haven't fought a defensive war in my lifetime, and yet we have fought, and died, ceaselessly. I encouraged my son to complete Navy ROTC twenty years ago; it was a mistake then, and I will not repeat the mistake.
Neither. My God man, the dying leviathan of the United States hates heritage Americans. Don’t feed it your own kin!
When I joined the Army in 2003, my uncle, a Vietnam veteran, said “don’t do it. It’s all bullshit.”
“But we were attacked.”
“Rather conveniently. Trust me, nephew.”
Now, when young men ask me if they should join, I echo this wise man. “Don’t do it. It’s all bullshit.”
I am conflicted because to a man for those who never joined, they regret it for the rest of their lives.
BUT
The services are existentially bad right now. I tried to get all my lads not to join but my youngest spent four years in Uncle Sam's Misguided Children and got out. He actually benefited from the Boot to Ass and listened to his old man NOT to join the infantry and thanked me afterward.
If DOGE digs into the Pentagon, the revelations will be stunning and heartbreaking.
I’m very interested to see what will come to pass in the next few years, as we are at the heavy end of Glubb’s 200-250 year cycle of empire.
I get it. Thanks. My Grand probably will not join voluntarily….. If conscripted however I will suggest NAVY.